Sunspotter Talk

Settling down.

  • Mjtbarrett by Mjtbarrett

    I know that predicting flare activity would be a useful thing to do but I just wondered if there was any pattern to quiet phases of individual sunspots? I just looked at today's images of the sun. AR 12113 is associated with several flares whilst over to the left (including an M); it now seems to have gone quiet. Is it the case that if sunspots give off a lot of flares early in a transit, that they probably won't do so again this time around?

    Posted

  • pahiggins by pahiggins

    Often flares follow periods of 'flux emergence' or increases in the sunspot group's magnetic fields. So when the SSG first emerges, there will often be flares. Also, further flux emergence can occur later on during its evolution (some times days after emergence), which could trigger further flares.

    The SSG can also evolve in certain ways (without flux emergence), causing instabilities and further flares: shearing along the polarity-separation-line can cause stress to build up within the SSG. This is similar to stress building up in the Earth before an earthquake. You don't know when it is going to happen, but you know it is getting more likely as time passes!

    So if there is no evolution going on at all, flares are less likely to happen, but not impossible!

    Posted